進路の維持
世界経済は、主要国により発表、実施された大型経済政策と足下での経済活動の再開、コロナワクチン、治療薬実用化への期待感などから、底打ちの兆しも見られます。米国では5月に発表された失業率が予想外に低下し、大規模財政により雇用市場は思ったより悪くないとの見方もではじめています。 世界景気は、4-6月期から7-9月期にかけ一旦回復に向かいそうです。緩和的、積極的な金融・財政政策により、主要国での5月の景況感指数は上昇への反転が多く見られます。ただ、休職者を考慮すると先行きの失業率は高水準での推移が見込まれ、回復が継続するとの考えはあまり意味がなさそうです。 10－12月期以降は、経済再開により自粛されていた期間の反動需要が一巡し、雇用、賃金環境の厳しさ、在庫調整に伴う設備投資の手控え、輸出の軟調などにより回復のモメンタムは鈍化すると予想します。政策効果による株価の上昇は一定のクッションとなりそうです。国によっては財政の崖が意識されはじめ、債券、為替市場は各国・地域間で跛行色がでそうです。 海外では差別や自由について大きく報道されています。自分自身の利害、
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